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MSCI World ETF vs S&P500 ETF: Which Has the Best 20-Year Return?

MSCI World ETF vs S&P500: discover which offers the best 20-year return, considering ISINs and TERs.

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samedi 20 septembre 2025 à 17:31Updated dimanche 17 mai 2026 à 13:245 min
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MSCI World ETF vs S&P500 ETF: Which Has the Best 20-Year Return?

Performance Comparison: MSCI World ETF vs S&P500 ETF (2004-2024)

Over the past 20 years, the choice between an ETF tracking the MSCI World and an ETF following the S&P500 has proven decisive for the overall performance of an international equity portfolio. In euros, the average annualized performance of the S&P500 over the 2004-2024 period reaches approximately +9.8% per year, compared to +7.9% per year for the MSCI World.

These figures notably come from popular ETFs such as the Amundi MSCI World UCITS ETF (ISIN: FR0010756098, TER 0.38%) and the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (ISIN: IE00B5BMR087, TER 0.07%). This 1.9 percentage point difference in favor of the S&P500 is explained by the marked outperformance of U.S. stocks, particularly the tech giants, over this period.

Decade-by-Decade Analysis: 2000-2010 and 2010-2020

To better understand the underlying dynamics, it is useful to split the 20 years into two decades:

DecadeS&P500 (annualized performance in EUR)MSCI World (annualized performance in EUR)
2000-2010-0.9%+1.8%
2010-2020+13.6%+8.5%

The first decade was marked by the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000, followed by the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P500 suffered a slight average annual loss (-0.9%), while the MSCI World limited the damage thanks to its geographic diversification (+1.8%).

The following decade saw overwhelming dominance by the United States, driven by the GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft). The S&P500 thus generated an exceptional annualized performance of +13.6%, compared to +8.5% for the MSCI World. The overwhelming weight of the American giants in the index explains this outperformance.

The Paradox of the High Correlation Between S&P500 and MSCI World

A key point often overlooked is that the S&P500 today represents about 70% of the total capitalization of the MSCI World. This massive weighting induces a very strong correlation between the two indices, estimated at 0.95 over 20 years.

This structural proximity means that, despite apparent diversification, the MSCI World remains closely tied to U.S. performance. The advantage of geographic diversification is therefore limited when the U.S. market is in a bullish phase.

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