Apple Prepares to Unveil a Foldable iPhone: What Are the Implications for Its Stock?

Apple is expected to announce on Wednesday its first foldable iPhone, marking its entry into the segment already dominated by Samsung, but analysts remain skeptical about the immediate impact on its stock price. While consumer excitement is palpable, market projections indicate that the announcement will not trigger a spectacular rise in the stock.

According to CNBC, the event fits within Apple's annual product launch framework, where each innovation is closely scrutinized by investors. Despite the media buzz, volatility expectations remain modest, with some players anticipating downward pressure as technical details are revealed.

Apple Prepares to Launch a Foldable iPhone on Wednesday

The foldable iPhone, anticipated for months, will be presented at the company's official press conference, according to CNBC's report. This first attempt by the brand to offer a device with a foldable screen aims to expand its premium range and meet the growing demand for larger screens without increasing the device's size.

Rumors suggest a price increase of $100 to $150 compared to standard models, primarily due to an estimated additional memory cost of $100 to $150 per smartphone. This price hike would be justified by Apple's ability to command a premium through its prestigious brand image, as noted by Nicolas Cote-Colisson of HSBC in a client note (CNBC).

Analysts Anticipate a 'Sell-the-News' Effect After the Launch

Wamsi Mohan, analyst at Bank of America, mentioned the possibility of a 'sell-the-news' effect, where Apple shares tend to rise before the announcement and then drop once the information is public. His historical analysis shows that the stock price fell the day after 10 out of 24 product launches since 2007, remained stable on five occasions, and rose only nine times (CNBC).

Michael Khouw, strategist at Tidal Financial Group, confirmed that "I don't expect the stock to move much following the announcement" and recalled that, based on his experience, post-launch reactions are generally limited (CNBC). This cautious outlook is based on the fact that the most significant price movements often occur before official disclosure, leaving little room for investors to capitalize on an immediate rebound.

Foldable Phone Price and Memory Constraints: A Risk to Margins

Laura Martin, analyst at Needham, expressed reservations about the future foldable iPhone's price, emphasizing concerns over rising memory costs and supply constraints for advanced node technologies. She indicated that "we are worried about its price and volume limitations, given the memory price increases and supply constraints" (CNBC).

HSBC, via Nicolas Cote-Colisson, estimates that the additional memory cost is between $100 and $150, pushing Apple to increase the selling price by at least $100 to preserve its margins. This estimate is based on component cost analysis and the brand's ability to command a premium through its pricing power (CNBC).

Integration of AI and Demand Expectations

Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, questioned investors about Apple's AI advancements, asking "What's New with Apple AI?" He added that "a very expensive foldable phone doesn't excite me, Samsung has been offering one for years" (CNBC), highlighting the established competition in this niche.

Analysts are waiting for John Ternus, Apple's CEO, to detail the integrated AI features of the new device, as this could justify a higher price and stimulate demand. According to industry observations, Apple's ability to monetize AI through premium services could partially offset the additional costs associated with hardware.

Historical Performance of Apple's Stock After Launches

Over the long term, Apple shares tend to rebound: 17 out of 24 product launches have generated gains after 60 days, according to Bank of America's data (CNBC). This dynamic suggests that, even if the immediate movement is neutral or slightly negative, the company's fundamentals and innovation capabilities continue to support the stock in the medium term.

Investors with a timeframe of several weeks to months could benefit from stock appreciation, provided the foldable phone's price remains aligned with the brand's perceived value. Conversely, those seeking to capitalize on an immediate rebound may face the typical volatility of a 'sell-the-news' effect.

Implications for French Investors

Apple (AAPL) remains accessible to French investors through a standard brokerage account (CTO), even though it is not eligible for a PEA. Shareholders can closely follow price announcements and management comments, particularly via the link Apple (AAPL), to adjust their positions based on expected developments.

Given the likelihood of a short-term sell reaction and medium-term recovery potential, French investors are encouraged to monitor post-launch press releases and memory cost analyses, which will be critical in determining the stock's trajectory in the coming weeks.