Bitcoin: Panicked sellers exhausted, price stabilizes above $62,000

Bitcoin is holding above $62,000 this Monday, despite a military escalation between the United States and Iran and sharply higher oil prices. For analysts, this resilience marks a turning point: the panicked sellers who have weighed on the market since March appear to be exhausting themselves.

Bitcoin holds $62,000 despite Iran-US escalation

The weekend was turbulent on global markets. US airstrikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent crude oil soaring, while risk assets declined. Yet bitcoin remained stable above $62,000, a behavior radically different from that seen in March and April, when similar geopolitical shocks triggered massive sell-offs.

An OTC trader at Wintermute said in an email cited by CoinDesk that bitcoin held $62,000 through rounds of US airstrikes and a closure of Hormuz without flinching, adding that weak hands have disappeared.

This resilience is all the more striking given that the geopolitical context has suddenly hardened. Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a new peak with US airstrikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route through which about 20% of the world's oil passes. Crude oil immediately jumped, and risk assets generally tumbled. But bitcoin, often considered a risk asset, held firm. In March and April, similar escalations led to massive bitcoin sell-offs, with investors fleeing to safe havens. This time, the reaction is different, suggesting that the weakest sellers have already left the market.

Bitcoin spot ETFs return to net inflows after eight weeks of outflows

A second signal comes from US spot bitcoin ETFs. Last week, they attracted $197.4 million net, ending eight consecutive weeks of outflows. The same trader noted that the eight-week ETF outflow streak is broken, just one round, not a trend, but the marginal seller is drying up.

An analyst at Nexo confirmed in an email that ETF flows confirm this from another angle, with the last ten days split between inflows and outflows, with a slightly positive balance.

This return to positive flows is significant because it comes after a long period of outflows. For eight weeks, investors had withdrawn capital from spot ETFs, a sign of widespread distrust. But last week, net inflows of nearly $200 million indicate that some investors are starting to buy again, even if the movement is still timid. For analysts, this confirms that selling pressure is easing. The "marginal seller" — the one willing to sell at any price, even at a loss — appears to be exhausting. Once that seller is gone, supply shrinks, which can support prices.

Selling pressure on the spot market drops to 53 BTC per day

On-chain data from Glassnode, cited by the analyst, shows that selling pressure on the spot market has significantly decreased. In June, net sales averaged nearly 2,000 BTC per day. In July, they fell to just 53 BTC per day, the lowest level of the year outside of April.

This sharp drop suggests that "weak hands" — investors willing to sell at a loss — have been eliminated. Once the marginal seller is gone, there is no more supply at this price level, which could stabilize the price.

The contrast is striking: in June, net sales reached nearly 2,000 BTC per day, equivalent to more than $120 million at current prices. This selling pace was unsustainable and largely explained the weakness in prices. In July, this figure fell to 53 BTC per day, a reduction of 97%. This is the lowest level since April, and even lower than that observed in May. This disappearance of selling pressure is a strong signal for the market. It indicates that investors who wanted to sell have already done so, and those who remain are "strong hands," unlikely to give up their positions at these price levels.

It is important to understand the economic mechanism behind this evolution. When the price of bitcoin falls sharply, as it did with a 28% drop this year, the least convinced or most indebted investors are forced to sell to limit their losses or meet margin calls. This is known as the "capitulation" of weak hands. Once these sellers have been eliminated, supply shrinks and the market can find equilibrium at a lower price level. This is precisely what seems to be happening now. Glassnode data shows that the selling flow has dried up, suggesting that the worst of the selling pressure is over.

Recovery still driven by derivatives, not spot demand

Despite these encouraging signals, one analyst warned that bitcoin demand is recovering quickly, but growth is currently driven mainly by retail traders in the speculative futures market, while the situation on the spot market remains less positive.

Without a clear return of buying liquidity on the spot market, prices could remain in a sideways trend. Bitcoin hit a yearly low of $57,700 in early July before rebounding. The current recovery, while real, still relies heavily on leverage and speculative positions.

This warning is crucial. Indeed, a recovery driven by derivatives is often less solid than one driven by the spot market. Futures markets allow traders to take leveraged positions, which amplifies price movements but also risks. If spot demand does not follow, prices could quickly reverse in the event of position unwinding. Data shows that trading volume on the spot market remains low, indicating that "real" investors (those buying bitcoin to hold) are not yet back in force. The recent rise is therefore fragile.

For long-term investors, the exhaustion of panicked sellers is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The market now awaits a catalyst — regulatory, macroeconomic, or adoption-related — to reignite a sustainable bullish dynamic. In the meantime, caution remains warranted, even as stabilization signals multiply.